Energy Forecasting for Cost Benefit Analysis of Implementing Zero Emission Vehicles in USA
The present study is concerned with estimation of the financial feasibility of implementing combination of Battery Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) in North America using what-if approach. For this study authors have developed a framework to perform the Cost Benefit Analysis of implementing Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) by estimating number of vehicles that are expected on road on year to year basis till 2050, of which Gasoline Powered Vehicles (GPVs) will be gradually replaced by EVs for short range transportation and FCVs for long range transportation. This framework has been applied to North America from 2018 to 2050. Our calculations show that estimated benefits of implementing Zero Emission Vehicles will be very significant as compared to continuing with Gasoline Powered Vehicles. It has been estimated from the model that Cost Benefit of switching to ZEVs will result in significant reduction of operations costs which is approximately equivalent to 130 billion USD of oil imports per year together it will be good for environment.
Keywords - Cost Benefit Analysis, Forecasting, Time Series Analysis, Hydrogen Vehicles, Electric Vehicles, Public Policy and Environment, ARIMA.