Wheat Production in India: Adaptability to Climate Change and Future Prospects
Wheat among cereals is the major food crop produced and consumed in India. Wheat is mostly cultivated in northern plains and has substantially high nutritional value. Over the years, climate change has however, adversely affected the productivity of food crops including wheat. Considering these, an attempt has been made to assess the impact of climate change on wheat, and to find a relationship between factors responsible for climate change and wheat production in India. Forecasting for 10 years has been made on the basis of data of 25 years (1994-2018)employing the Box-Jenkin ARIMA model of the total production and total consumption of wheat in India. The ARIMA model of production selected for this study is of the order (1,1,0) and for consumption, it is of the order (0,1,2). The present finding will help in suggesting whether India will be self-sufficient in total wheat production against the consistently increasing demand of wheat for human consumption or not.
Keywords - Climate Change; Wheat; Productivity; Sustainability; ARIMA Model