Paper Title
Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield in Dapoli : An Agricultural Analysis Using DSSAT CERES Model

Abstract
The study explores the impact of climate change on rice production in Dapoli, using the DSSAT CERES rice crop model for the base period from 1997 to 2023 and the future till the end of 21st century i.e. 2099. In this study, we examine the simulated and observed yields of the Dapoli region for impact assessment and validation of the DSSAT model in simulating the yield. The results show that the simulated yields consistently surpass the observed yields, suggesting model accuracy limitations. Further, the methodology involves the statistical observations between actual and simulated yields and then investigates the relationship between Growing Degree Days and yields and forecasts future yields. The analysis indicates a positive correlation between GDD and simulated yields that reflects a rise in GDD may not always result in a proportional increase in actual yields. They provide the importance and role of other meteorological and physiological variables in crop growth. The forecasted yield under a moderate scenario (RCP 4.5) ranged from 0.998 tons per hectare in 2060 to 5.268 tonnes per ha in 2056. RCP 8.5 forecasts a more severe scenario, with crop yields ranging from 1.17 tons per hectare in 2060 to 5.644 tons per hectare in 2055. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, growth phases and yield components advanced slightly, indicating that elevated temperatures accelerated plant development, especially in the case of rice crops. The study demonstrates the DSSAT model's potential for predicting climate change impacts, highlighting the resilience of local practices in Dapoli and aiding future climate change adaptation strategies. Keywords - RCP Scenarios, Climate Change, Observed Yield, Simulated, Yield, Impact Assessment